Unlike the Democrats, Iowa Republicans picked a clear winner in last night’s state caucus: Ted Cruz. But should the word “winner” be used to describe Cruz?
If history is any guide, Rafael Edward Cruz will not be the Republican nominee for president. Lest we forget, the last two Republican primary winners in Iowa were Rick Santorum (2012) and Mike Huckabee (2008). Enough said.
Do you see a pattern here? If you look at the last three Iowa “winners,” you see a common thread: the candidates’ religiosity. Santorum is well known for his deep Christian beliefs and has even questioned the separation of church and state. Before entering politics, Mike Huckabee was a pastor who preached for 12 years from Arkansas pulpits. Ted Cruz has been quoted as saying any candidate who doesn’t start “every day on his knees” in prayer isn’t fit to be president.
Evangelical Christians make up a large portion of the Iowa Republican base. By picking Cruz, they are following in the tradition of choosing the most religious candidate they could find; a candidate who will be shunned by other Republicans in less evangelical states.
Too bad for Cruz … and the Democrats. Cruz is the one candidate most Democrats want to see get the Republican nomination. It is a toss up as to who detests Cruz more: establishment Republicans or Democrats.
The next primary state is New Hampshire. Ted Cruz is stuck in a statistical tie for second place along with Kasich, Bush and Rubio with roughly 11% of the vote. Donald Trump comfortably leads in New Hampshire with 34% of the vote according to the latest statistics.
Pundits, analysts and the media, in general, like to place great emphasis on the Iowa caucus winners. But with the state’s history of picking Republican “winners,” we ironically have the first loser of 2016… Ted Cruz.
Photo | AP/ChrisCarlson
Charles Sloane says
With any luck, this spills over to New Hampshire and Trump comes in second or worse. Then he gets out of the race althogether as the Loser that he is. I also think that with Bernie’s great showing in Iowa, that Crazy Uncle Joe is getting whispers in his ear to re think getting into the race if drafted. IMHO, if Joe gets in, he gets the nomination, chooses Elizabeth Warren as VP and wins in a cake walk over whomever the Gop/TeaParty picks. We can only hope.
John DeProspo says
Charlie, I must disagree with you. We Democrats should want Trump or Cruz to be the Republican nominee. They are much easier to beat than one of the more “acceptable” candidates like Rubio, Kasich etc.A Trump or Cruz defeat in the general election just might bring about the death of the GOP as we now know it. I like your thought on Crazy Uncle Joe but I’m afraid its going to be Hillary … unless some Clinton scandal erupts soon.
Charlie says
I actually think trump could win in the general. He’s willing to do or say anything so he’s always a wild card with some undecided voters. I think Hillary ‘s problems (GOP created) will always be front and center for the undecided. That s why I wish Joe B would get a Dem whisperer in his corner.
John DeProspo says
I do not believe there is any way Trump wins a general election, even if he ran against Clint Eastwood’s infamous chair. There will always be an ardent 30% of Republicans who will vote for him. That’s not a ticket to winning the presidency. Just wait until some of those Republicans come to know Melania Trump… immigrant and former nude model. She speaks with a very noticeable accent. Def not First Lady material for most Repugs (although I would be very happy with her!)
Marcus says
Americans are morons. Rubio, with his ridiculous personal financial lapses, isn’t qualified to be president of a local little league yet did well in Iowa. Hillary is the the most dishonest and duplicitous creature ever in public life and even Democrats realize she has no interests beyond POWER. Bernie is a nice man but delusional in his claim that additional Wall Street taxes could ever fund his fantasy list of freebies. And Cruz in a strident, nasty religious kook who is extremely smart but also insufferably arrogant. Trump is America’s last best hope, despite his many negatives. He’s pragmatic, gets things done, loves America and is neither a lawyer not religious nut. Hopefully NH will propel him forward. And he can beat Hillary. I know plenty of Dems who despise her and will stay home rather than support her.
John DeProspo says
You are right on many things. Americans are morons; all the candidates, both on the Democratic and Republican side, are flawed. I happen to think Sanders is the least flawed and the most genuine. But hey, that’s why they have elections.
Charlie says
Hopefully Bloomberg is true to his word and gets in if either Cruz or trump get the GOP nomination
John DeProspo says
I think he is just testing the waters as an ego thing. Third party candidate? No way.