Below is the most recent compilation of all the national Republican presidential polls, as tracked by HuffPost. Donald Trump is comfortably in first place, followed by Ben Carson. As has been the case for months, Trump and Carson, both non-politicians, are the only two candidates in double figures.
The establishment favorite, Jeb Bush, is in third place but at a dismal 7.3%.
If we agree that none of those candidates polling under 5% have any real shot at becoming the GOP’s nominee, that leaves us with only five candidates: Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.
Under this very likely scenario, the Republican presidential pick will emerge from among this group of five. But who will end up with the prize? Let’s look at the candidates more closely to see if we can predict the eventual champ.
Donald Trump – The celebrity billionaire who came from out of nowhere to rock the Republican establishment is still luxuriating in his fifteen minutes of fame. The man has a loyal, solid backing that will stay with him no matter what stupid things he says or does (some may say that is the basis for his appeal). While his poll numbers are tanking in Iowa, he is still the establishment’s worst nightmare. Will the Party allow this outsider to come out on top? Not if they have any say. They will do everything in their power to dethrone the Donald.
Ben Carson – When you listen to what the affable retired neurosurgeon says, it is clear the man is less politically sophisticated than even Trump. His main support comes from the religious right. But while he may be a hit with Iowa Evangelicals, that won’t be enough to secure the nomination for the fundamentalist doctor.
Jeb Bush – The man with all that early establishment support, and money, is turning out to be a dud. Much of this is due to the fact that he is a terrible campaigner. But the primary reason why his poll numbers have languished in the basement for so long is obvious … he’s a Bush. Most Republican voters have made it clear they do not want another Bush in the White House. Still, I would not give up on Jeb just yet. He is, after all, the man the Party wants and, if history is any guide, they usually get their way. But this time around, it doesn’t feel like “business as usual.” It is somewhat ironical Jeb is seen as “too moderate” for today’s Republican base.
Marco Rubio – The young Senator from Florida is still a little too wet behind the ears for a serious run at the nomination. He is a Washington insider trying to sell himself as an outsider. No matter how much he tries to distance himself from the Beltway, it won’t work. We’ve reached a moment when anti-establishment is in.
Ted Cruz – No one in the media seems to be talking about Cruz’ chances much. Perhaps the most far right candidate in the group, Tea Bagger types hold him in high esteem. He is an effective speaker and knows how to stir up a crowd. Grassroots Republicans just love him. In favorability polls, Cruz always finishes near the top. He is a sitting Senator but his supporters think of him as an outsider. Cruz’s ideology fits in well with where the Republican Party is today. In addition, he is well-liked by Evangelicals. Yes, the adults in the Party hate him. But if it’s either Trump or Carson, look for the Party establishment to “hold its nose” and strike a deal with the renegade Cruz.
I hate to admit this, but right now my pick would be for Cruz to secure the nomination, as ridiculous as that may sound.
What do you think? Leave a comment.
IMHO Cruz is the most dangerous and scary of this group. He is so out of the mainstream that the GOP would take the largest beat down since Goldwater on the GOP side and Dukakis on the democrat side.
I agree. Let’s hope he is the nominee!
Oh please, God, please! With Cruz, the GOP will surely cruise to their death!
Earl, with any of the Republican Bozos the GOP will crash and burn … even if the Democrats nominee Sponge Bob Squarepants!
I beg to disagree with you gentlemen, and this disagreement is at the heart of the “why”, I , a very intensely private person who never wanted to get involved in giving out my opinions and observations, feel and know I must get involved. For you and others to say, in the wake of the 2014 elections, the Republican Party is self-destructing is a honest but dangerous assumption. The Republican Party’s presidential selection process is so far, very fractious, so I do give us an even chance to retain control of the Executive Branch of the federal government. But I predict the Republicans will gain a 60 vote super-majority in the U.S. Senate and retain a large majority in the U.S. House. If they gain control of all 3 branches of our federal government then we Democrats will be citizens of the most deviant and dangerous nation the world has ever seen. I predict that in less than year we will be in a murderous ground war in Iran and a compulsory draft will be forced upon the citizenry. I believe your false assumption is greatly influenced by your failure to objectively evaluate and include in your calculations the monstrous power of the Fox Fascist Propaganda Network and its abilities to influence the minds and thought processes of tens of millions of citizens and voters. Their constant message demanding their true believers to engage in numerous depraved and degenerate activities is now accepted as another normal, legitimate and civilized part of our natural national political structure and discourse. I studied the Nazi Propaganda Ministry concisely, incisively, and precisely so I could understand and know how “they engaged in an insidious debauchery of the public mind” in their country, which resulted in the design and construction of an industrial complex with the singular purpose of murdering millions and millions of human beings. Amazingly, unbelievably, grievously, and still possessing a never-ending anguish, their mass perversion was successful. One thing they did so effectively was to assemble a team of dedicated and professional hatemongers, warmongers, gossipmongers, murdermongers, and most importantly scapegoatmongers. As the rightwing, beginning with the Reagan administration started shifting the nation’s distribution of wealth from the lower and middle income classes to the already obscenely wealthy classes, they also began to blame tax and spend liberals for the losses this still continuing shift of wealth is causing tens of millions of Americans to suffer in their ever decreasing quality of life and standard of living. The Republican Party also during the Reagan administration began the gutting and defunding of the education system, and under Bush 1, did away with the Department of Education as a separate Cabinet level Department by combining it with 2 other departments they started defunding, Health and Welfare. In 1996 the Fox Propaganda machine funded by the rightwing billionaires and multi-billionaires who have promoted the idea of steadily moving towards a regressive re-creation of the United States into a totalitarian capitalistic society and nation, was installed. Are all these machinations by the rightwing a well formed conspiracy? No of course not, but they are multiplying and gaining tremendous momentum. When you get millions and millions of voters to cast ballots which will absolutely lead to these same voters having a lesser quality of life and lower standard of living, while at the same time convincing them that tax and spend liberals are the real reason behind all they have lost and all they are about to lose you have done something fearfully astonishing. For us on the right side of history to treat them as our equals is beyond foolish, it invites them to kill our good and righteous hopes and dreams for our nation’s and our progeny’s future. Our present situation is very reminiscent of the fictional but very valuable scene in “Mississippi Burning” with the Justice Department head of the investigation saying “I don’t want to get down in the gutter with these people” and the head FBI investigator saying “these people crawled up out of the sewer into the gutter, and if we don’t get down in the gutter and fight them on their terms they win and we lose.” My fellow liberals, progressives, Democrats, and Independents the stakes are much higher now. We who knew the war in Iraq was wrong were hatefully and godlessly called unpatriotic, non-supporters of our beloved troops, and of giving comfort to the enemy. And all the while I personally believed and still believe that the reason for starting and prosecuting this war was to run up the national debt. They passed a multi-trillion dollar tax cut over 10 years and after it became the enforced law of the nation, 9/11 took place. Al-Qaeda and the Saadam Hussein regime were bitter and murderous enemies, if a imam talked pro-Al-Qaeda at a Sunni mosque in Iraq then, he would be out in the desert at 2:30 A.M. the next morning digging a hole for his body. Every poll during the Iraq War and all the polls taken after the war show 60% of those polled think the Iraqis were involved in 9/11. This majority is what we are up against. If we do not convince, or better put, deprogram a significant number of these deceived and manipulated voters we will lose. And if we lose our best people will again be sent to Iraq, and also to Syria, and most horrid of all the rightwing will invade Iran. The yellow-cake from Niger, the WMD and the mobile biological and chemical weapons laboratories were all lies, mere fabrications by the rightwing, but the meeting in Prague, Czech Republic I have often wondered about, if there was an Al-Qaeda agent there who did he really meet, not an Iraqi regime agent that is certain, psychopaths often think they can never be caught, and as a result they like to taunt their victims by using a traitorous event where they were the true party involved and have it go down in human history. The thug Cheney went on every network saying the war would only cost 50-100 billion dollars and as a result there was no reason to roll back the multi-trillion dollar tax cut for the wealthiest human beings who ever walked the face of the earth. Of course being the depraved liar that he is, he already knew the plan was to borrow trillions of dollars from the Chinese, Japanese, Brazilians and the Gulf-state Arabs to finance the war. Who got these trillions of dollars, well for certain it was not the families of those who were dying, they didn’t and still don’t have a G.I. Bill and the rights it could have given them. It was gutted during the rightwing program to dumb down and deceive the American citizenry, and because educated veterans are difficult to deceive; it is better for the rightwing to allow veterans to suffer for the rest of their lives wondering what their country did to them and why did they do it, all the while telling them their sufferings are being caused by tax and spend liberals who are out to eliminate the Department of Veteran’s Affairs. So the trillions of dollars borrowed went to the same billionaires and multi-billionaires who were receiving the multi-trillion dollar tax cut over ten years. Then after a man of integrity was elected President they nearly timed the collapse of the economy perfectly but fell a few months short, still the Republican House members voted in a huge block for another Great Depression, and if President Obama had been sworn in as President I am convinced they would have never voted to stave off a Great Depression. I remember well how Fox Propaganda Network vilified the highly skilled and deeply devoted head of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, for saving the economy. And how millions of their moronic followers began to hate him for saving their families from the ravages of great economic hardship. I am starting to ramble on here so I will conclude for now with these observations. By more than doubling the national debt during what became 12 years of tax cuts and by borrowing trillions of dollars to finance an illegal war of aggression against Iraq the rightwing has hammered on the topic of cutting what they call entitlement programs. They intend to eliminate our programs providing Freedom from Want and Freedom from Fear, the right to healthcare, the right to a free and full education, the right to vote, the right to protest, and freedom of speech. They are dedicated to making our country a totalitarian capitalistic tyranny. So what did our wonderful, valorous, brave, and devoted to duty members of our military give their lives, limbs, sight, mobility, and mental health to protect and defend. I am so sorry to say the truth, but someone has to say it. They gave their lives and all the rest I mentioned, and much more I did not mention so the rightwing could end the Social Security Program, Medicare, Medicaid, Federal Housing Assistance, SNAP, LIEAP, WIC, U.S. Postal Service, or to paraphrase G. Norquist and I really don’t care about this psychopathic creep’s name “to make the federal government so small it can be drowned in a bathtub” and to make sure “government of the people, for the people, and by the people” perishes from the earth. These men and women died so their parents, grandparents, and their children would lose the right to Social Security Benefits, Medicare, Medicaid, and even Meals on Wheels and a school lunch. And finally in closing this long statement I will bitterly, angrily, and defiantly state that the billionaires and multi-billionaires laughed all the way to bank over the dead bodies of our righteous men and women “who gave the last full measure of devotion” so their country, our country, might continue to live. These men and women did not give their lives in vain, they gave their lives so the truth about the new unchristian, ungodly, unrighteous, indecent, dishonest and deviant rightwing in this country could be exposed. The rightwing does not love our country, instead they love money and the power it can buy. Support and defend all that is real, true, honest, , good, righteous, decent, and honorable in this country by casting your ballot for the liberal-progressive Democratic Party using a straight ticket vote and know by doing so the rightwing depravities and perversities which have gained ascendance in the minds of millions will in time grow weak and then begin to wither away and become a thing of the past. The citizens must control our nation’s destiny not a handful of billionaires and multi-billionaires who are able to hire a group of master-deceivers, master-manipulators and master-programmers to pervert the minds of millions. I grew to manhood in the coalfields of southwestern West Virginia where Mother Jones sang “which side are you on?” We are there again and the stakes are so much higher, so it is time to pick a side or else………………………….. John do whatever you see fit with this statement and thank-you for your Moron Majority. Com site. I apologize for my inabilities regarding political satire and for using your site to vent a little, but it is partly your fault, because you are the person who made it so user friendly and conveniently accessible. Very gratefully yours, Edward Johnston
Wow! Where to start? I agree that the “Fox Fascist Propaganda” machine is, and has been, a cancer on our body politic. But I do not believe any potential Republican presidential candidate can beat the Democratic candidate, whoever that may be. It will most likely be Clinton. Unless some major, real scandal befalls her,she will be elected our next president. I say all this because the party of Lincoln seems to have bee hijacked by its far right wing. The country, as a whole, is not that radical. Plus sheer demographics work against the Republicans. I am talking about national elections. On the state level, yes the crazies have taken power.I think there is a good chance Democrats will pick up Senate seats in a Democratic presidential victory. I agree, if your grim scenario comes about … the Repugs gain control of the executive and legislative branches … to go along with their control of the Supreme Court, kiss our country good bye. Game-set-match.
John, hopefully you are right and I am wrong. I also agree with you and your assessment of the total citizenry of our nation being not very radical to any serious extent. The rightwing propaganda machine’s abilities to deceive and manipulate the minds of millions of morons should never be under estimated again, its abilities to control, influence, and direct its followers must be as adequately and as accurately estimated as possible and then entered into all calculations or equations regarding the outcome of the 2016 Presidential election. I now believe Hillary Clinton should be our Presidential candidate, although I am closer to Senator Sanders in political philosophy. Ms. Clinton possesses very positive electability characteristics, qualities, and attributes, and when combined with her ability to withstand the most hateful of treatment and abuse the Republicans in the U.S. House and Senate could heap on her with grace and courage, it obviously makes her our best candidate, with the best chance to win. But because of many other factors I can personally give us and her only an even chance of winning. I am fearful a very poor turnout by our millions of African-American supporters will occur as part of the backlash to all the violence and killings happening in this community and its voting bloc. Of course it is equally possible this group of dedicated Democrats will be inspired to vote in record numbers. Our losses in the U.S. Senatorial races in 2014 are still fresh in my mind, sitting Democratic U.S. Senators Landrieu of LA, Hagan of NC, Pryor of AR, Udall of CO, and Begich of AK all lost reelection bids to some very creepy Republicans. We also lost the U.S. Senate seats of long serving and retiring Senators Baucus of MT, Johnson of SD, Harkin of IA, and Rockefeller of WV. But nevertheless I do believe you could be correct about us gaining a seat or two because Republican Senators Kirk of IL, Portman of OH, Toomey of PA, and Ayotte of NH are all vulnerable in the upcoming elections. The Republican Party’s vast financial resources will allow their Senatorial candidates to outspend our Democratic candidates by two to one or more in nearly every one of these races. It will be close, so we must give encouragement, guidance, understanding, knowledge, facts, and most of all instill in our people the Presidential election’s extreme urgency and all the resultant negative consequences to the entire nation if we lose the Executive Branch. We must create and inspire a passionate desire and need to vote in our people, in order to bring out our supporters in huge and record numbers. I gave you a thumbs up and very deservedly it moved your site from 25th to 23rd. It made me feel a little influential for a short second or two. Thank-you very much for your site and the comfortable feeling it gives to its readers and those making comments. I spent weeks studying the various sites listed by Ranker before choosing Moron Majority. I chose well. Very sincerely yours, Edward Johnston
Thanks for your support, Edward.
The GOP has just about offended every group needed to win a national election… women, blacks, Hispanics, gays. I do not see any road map for the GOP, as it is currently made up, to win a national election for a very long time. Their “Fox” low-information base is shrinking. I just read MSNBC’s ratings have been on the rise, while Fox’s are declining (click here). Demographics just work against them. I expect a large voter turnout among the groups I mentioned.