“Oh boy, is this great!” –Kent Dorfman
OK, it’s halftime. We know who is leading going into the second half. But who will win the game?
I am not a seer or prognosticator. I do not own a crystal ball. But I do have some reasoned ideas on how the political contests of 2016 will shake out.
Now that I’ve gotten my disclaimer out of the way (even if I’m wrong, could I be more wrong than Karl Rove in 2012?), here is what I predict:
Republican Presidential Nominee
It is hard to bet against a front-runner who has been clobbering his opponents for the past six months, but I predict Ted Cruz will be the Republican nominee. As readers of this blog know, I believe there is something going on between Donald Trump and Cruz. That Trump, the king of the “birthers,” has not hit Cruz on his eligibility to even run for the presidency, having been born in Canada, tells me everything I need to know. Look for Trump to offer up his supporters to Cruz when he exits the race.
But what about Rubio, you ask? The GOP establishment may get behind the boy wonder but the Republican base will have none of it. As much as he tries to paint himself as “outside the Beltway,” Rubio is a sitting U.S. Senator. For GOP voters, this is the year of the outsider. But isn’t Ted Cruz a sitting U.S. Senator like Rubio? Yes, but Cruz is universally hated by everyone in Congress, both Republicans and Democrats. He’s a rebel and loose cannon, very much in the mold of Trump, hence the appeal.
But might Jeb be the nominee? Fuggedaboutit!
Democratic Presidential Nominee
While I’m a big supporter of Bernie Sanders, look for Hillary Clinton to be the Democratic presidential nominee. I say this with one caveat… no new Clinton scandal erupts anytime soon. With Hillary, you never know. So Bernie supporters don’t give up hope… yet.
2016 Presidential Winner
If it comes down to a contest between Clinton and Cruz, look for a Clinton landslide. Cruz is too much of a radical for establishment-type Republicans to rally behind him. As for Clinton, while many Progressives have vowed never to vote for her, cooler heads will prevail. Bernie supporters are a passionate bunch but they are not suicidal. They are intelligent enough to know another Republican in the White House would be a disaster. One simple argument will win them over … the next president will appoint at least one, maybe two, Supreme Court justices.
If you think my prognosticating, in the words of Joe Biden, is pure malarkey, tell me so. I welcome your thoughts.
Happy New Year!
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Yes, it is strange that Trump and Cruz do not really attack one another. Even stranger that Trump hasn’t played his trump card against Cruz… he was born in Canada! What about that whole “birther” thing?
Yep, they have some type of deal going on.
I predict each party will nominate a candidate and one of them will be our next president.
No one can dispute that! Any more predictions?
Clinton is as close to a sure thing as we can get on the Democratic side.
In the GOP think Rubio is the one to watch. Ted Cruz as the Republican nominee would be a disaster for the party.
Yes, Cruz would be a disaster for the GOP if he’s the nominee. Let’s hope that is the case!